Preface#
I recently returned from the Netherlands and met up with some college classmates. They are still in the process of looking for jobs, and despite sending out thousands of resumes, they haven't had any luck. I asked some other college classmates, and they are in the same situation. I don't think that with their abilities, they should have trouble finding a job. Their response is usually that the current job market is extremely tough. Companies want fresh graduates, but they also want them to have 2 years of work experience, and they want them to do high-value work for the lowest cost possible. In summary, domestic companies in China want to hire "slaves," while the current labor laws seem powerless.
The data I saw abroad showed that there are 280 million unemployed people in China, but when I came back, I found that 200 million of them are labeled as "flexibly employed."
Why are there still so many unemployed people, especially in sales, customer service, and manual labor jobs? I think as the post-00s generation, we understand that these types of jobs are basically traps. I had a friend who worked as a loan customer service representative at a company in Wuhan Optics Valley, and the entire floor of the company was shut down, and he still hasn't come out.
Using blue-collar workers in manufacturing as an example (also applicable to white-collar workers)#
There are complaints about having too many college students, too few newborns, firing people at 35 being too old, and retiring at 60 being too early. This is the overall employment situation in China today. The graduation season for universities in 2024 is approaching. Compared to the 1 million college students in 2000, the number of college graduates in 2024 has increased by more than tenfold to 11.79 million. And these 11.79 million college students are once again facing the most difficult graduation season.
We always say that there is a structural contradiction in employment, a mismatch between blue-collar and white-collar workers, and a shortage of blue-collar workers. Many people have the view that these college students are unwilling to take off their long robes. But I want to say that this may be wrong.
Let's start with the shortage of blue-collar workers. Is China really lacking blue-collar workers? First of all, what level do people think China's manufacturing industry is at? Is it still in the rough stage of relying on manpower? Obviously not. Since 2014, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry has gradually decreased, but the output value of the manufacturing industry has continued to rise. China's manufacturing industry has long shown an increase in labor productivity due to industrial upgrading, resulting in a decrease in labor supply. In other words, the manufacturing industry is actually providing fewer and fewer job opportunities.
But why do we still often hear factory owners say that they can't find workers? It's because they don't want ordinary workers, they don't want real blue-collar workers. Chinese manufacturing industry bosses are facing a gradual decrease in market growth and increasingly fierce competition. With no other costs to cut, they urgently need a group of workers who can work at extremely low labor costs and with high intensity, or blue-collar workers. Of course, in ancient times, they were called slaves. So many workers in the manufacturing industry find it difficult to endure such high-intensity working hours and often leave after a few days or weeks.
Look at manufacturing giants like Foxconn and BYD. If they strictly follow the 8-hour workday and 5-day workweek mandated by Chinese labor laws, the basic salary is only 2,500 yuan. Although the job postings state a monthly income of 6,000 to 8,000 yuan, that is the result of working overtime every day, on weekends, on statutory holidays, and working crazy hours. In this situation, manufacturing companies have to recruit and pay workers on a daily basis, leading to a shortage of blue-collar workers. The shortage of blue-collar workers is actually caused by manufacturing companies further reducing costs, resulting in low employee retention rates and high turnover. The shortage of blue-collar workers itself is a false demand. After all, in this modern civilized society, how can there be an abundant supply of super-slaves?
So the false demand for blue-collar workers is not related to whether college students are willing to take off their long robes. Our society always creates an environment where college students are unwilling to enter the blue-collar industry dominated by manufacturing, which leads to a shortage of blue-collar workers and high employment pressure for college students. But why doesn't society criticize capitalists for not leading industrial upgrading, lacking social responsibility, and not providing suitable positions for college students? Is it just because college students are weak and won't resist criticism?
In my opinion, in the short term, the Chinese job market is unable to occupy the top position in the world market due to industrial upgrading. It is unable to expand a large number of service and management positions. The overall number of job opportunities in China is much smaller than in previous years, while the main labor force, college graduates, is still growing, leading to a large-scale unemployment situation.
Of course, due to the statistical rules of unemployment rates, the unemployment rate will not rise, and we will still see a peaceful society in the news.